“That no free government, nor the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people, but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; by frequent recurrence to fundamental principles; and by the recognition by all citizens that they have duties as well as rights, and that such rights cannot be enjoyed save in a society where law is respected and due process is observed.” -- George Mason
A useful definition of operational risk comes from the world of banking, where the Basel Accords defined it as the potential for financial loss caused by systems, by inadequate or failed internal processes, by people, and/or by external events. Operational risk continues to present an unusually large number of challenges in a fractured world. Risk is the big tent that holds such practices as cybersecurity, business continuity, disaster recovery, privacy and ethics. Against an increasingly volatile political environment in the runup to the November elections, we can identify predictable risk and financial loss in examples as disparate as Hurricanes Helene and Milton; and an increasing number of ransomware attacks on public sector organizations like ports, schools, and libraries, whose services have been massively disrupted. In these two types of cases, we see the broad ramifications of the disruptions. Institutional or private insurance groups are grappling with the costs of reimbursing the insured or, in some cases, going out of business because of the frequency and magnitude of the claims they are processing. When natural disasters occur, people’s homes have been lost, and the critical infrastructure that supports daily functions (power and water in particular) have been disrupted for indeterminant periods of time. There is no doubt that the elections processes in Southeast states affected by the hurricanes will have to be reimagined in a very short time frame.
Against this background of natural disasters and cyberattacks, we have to consider the financial cost/loss in supporting our allies in two wars that are draining our own supply chain and stockpiles. But past the financial loss there are concerted attempts to affect the outcome of our presidential elections – those attempts are coming from the Russians, in one case; and from the wartime cabinet of Israel in the other. In the Mideast, we are driving for a cease fire and a two-state solution, but those efforts will surely languish until after a new president is sworn in. In the meantime, an increasingly larger cast of players and organizations has joined Hamas in lining up against Israel and the military support we currently provide. “Hamas reportedly receives material assistance and training from Iran and some of its allies, including the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah. Qatar has been a key financial supporter of the Palestinian militant organization Hamas, transferring more than $1.8 billion to Hamas over the years.” (Source: U.S. Department of Justice) The challenges in the region, and the possible use of nuclear devices, makes this conflict as volatile a set of external events as we see in the war in Ukraine and Russia.
Here's where the quote above from George Mason comes in. As the author of the State of Virginia’s constitution and bill of rights, he was more explicit than Thomas Jefferson in defining what powers were retained by citizens as opposed to the government. As we approach the November elections, we would be well advised to consider his closing words:
“and by the recognition by all citizens that they have duties as well as rights, and that such rights cannot be enjoyed save in a society where law is respected and due process is observed.”
One of our duties is not only sorting out what is true, but also exercising our right to vote in the coming elections. Anxieties from some of the risk events described earlier may lead down rat holes constructed by external players who have a great deal at stake in the outcomes of the election. Pair that with the need to create working polling places in areas where there is still no power or water, and with legal challenges that have led to court decisions for (for example) hand counts of the vote. Any possible interruption to the process of certifying a state’s ballot outcomes and electoral college votes will probably be tried in one or another of the key states.
What it comes down to is making sure that you vote and that you have encouraged everyone else you know to vote after fair consideration of the issues that are at stake in this year’s election. At the risk of sounding like a campaign slogan, I would remind you that the presidential choices could not be more different.
Originally Published in ASA News & Notes October 14, 2024
Annie Searle
Searle is an Associate Teaching Professor Emeritus at the University of Washington. She is founder and principal of ASA Risk Consultants, a Seattle-based advisory firm. She spent 10 years at Washington Mutual Bank, most of them as a senior executive. Annie is a member of the CISA 10 Regional Infrastructure Security Group. She was an inaugural inductee in 2011 into the Hall of Fame for the International Network of Women in Homeland Security and Emergency Management. She writes a column monthly for ASA News & Notes and is the author of several books or book chapters. She is also a member of the emeritus board of directors for the Seattle Public Library Foundation.