Harris is losing senior voters to Trump by not presenting crisp, short points that can be easily understood, such as addressing their concerns that Social Security Income (SSI) benefits are too meager and may not continue.
For instance, regarding the social security issue, Trump is precise about what he will do for seniors.
On the X media platform, Trump wrote: "To help seniors on fixed incomes who are suffering the ravages of Comrade Kamala Harris' inflation nightmare — I'm promising NO TAX on SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS!" On his campaign website, he adds that there will be no cuts to Medicare or changes to the retirement age for receiving SSI benefits.
These promises translate quickly into dollar amounts. A senior can easily think, “I’ll be paying less taxes, and I won’t have to work longer to receive SSI.”
In comparison, Harris makes two sweeping aspirational generalizations that do not draw a line in the sand and say, "This is where I stand on this issue.”
On her campaign website, she has two statements. She will protect Social Security and Medicare against relentless attacks from Donald Trump and his extreme allies. She will strengthen Social Security and Medicare for the long haul by making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes.
Harris’s language appeals to Democrats. They want somebody to fight Trump. Someone who will call out how he is attacking SSI and helping billionaires. But for those not steeped in political party identification, it sounds like vague promises.
Independent-minded seniors may not assume that Trump is out to threaten SSI or that if billionaires pay more taxes, seniors will directly benefit. Harris’s statements do not convert into daily pocketbook concerns that will impact their future.
And seniors are very concerned about their future. With just a decade until retirement, 55-year-old Americans have less than $50K in median retirement savings. One-third have already postponed retirement due to persistent inflation because they are the first modern generation without defined benefit pensions or full societal security benefits.
The senior constituency overlayed on the most crucial swing states in this election shows that four of the critical seven swing states are in the top ten states with over a million people aged 65 and older: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, the latter with about two-and-a-half million.
Every one of their votes is critical to Harris. According to a New AARP Poll, Trump has a 2% lead over Harris in this age group in the crucial state of Michigan. That may also be true in the other swing states since exit polls of the 2020 presidential election showed that Trump got three percent more of the senior vote than Biden.
Seniors are very motivated voters. Eighty-eight percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November. Democrats have garnered younger voters' support, with Harris holding a 31-point lead over Trump among likely voters ages 18 to 29. However, seniors are 12 points higher than voters ages 18-49 in being “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot.
They are motivated because the future stability of SSI benefits and Medicare costs is the major economic issue for seniors. They need the security of knowing a predictable retirement budget will allow them to stop working before their health fails.
Compounding the danger of Democrats ignoring potential senior voters is that they are the largest voting group. Democrats should be proud that Harris has won over a significant percentage of the younger voters. Nevertheless, there are many more older voters than the younger ones. KFF, a national, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, calculated that in the November 2022 congressional races, voters aged 18 and 45 accounted for 41 million, and those older than 45 accounted for 81 million.
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How Harris Should Increase Senior Support
It's not too late for Harris’s campaign to make a hard drive to reach seniors, particularly white male seniors who are one of Trump’s key voter bases.
First, her campaign needs a message that Harris would eliminate taxes on SSI benefits. This nullifies Trump’s pitch. It doesn’t matter if he complains that she is stealing his program. Her response should be, “I accept all good ideas, no matter what side of the aisle they come from.”
Just as important is her follow-up knockout punch line, “But I’ll make it work, and not endanger SSI, because Trump has no plan for saving SSI. He pitches a great-sounding promise, but without doing the hard work of developing a plan, he will cut future funding for all senior’s SSI benefits.”
That is not an empty Democratic swipe at Trump. The only piece of Republican legislation that represents Trump’s promised plan is H.R.9359 – which amends the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to repeal the inclusion of Social Security benefits in gross income.
It’s all 20 lines long and does not mention how to fill the hole in SSI revenue or the estimated increase in the federal deficit by $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion through 2035 due to Trump’s proposed law. The nonpartisan public policy organization Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that this law would increase Social Security’s 75-year shortfall by 25% without an infusion of revenue to replace lost taxes.
Trump’s law will cut future benefits because SSI trust funds are already expected to run dry in 1935 since Social Security is already paying more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes. Unless Congress acts sooner, beneficiaries could see an across-the-board 17% benefit cut. Trump will dig the SSI debt hole deeper.
Despite these significant adverse impacts, most voters will never know about them; instead, they will hear Trump say he will eliminate taxes on their SSI benefits.
Harris must tear up this narrative. She must be loud and brief. She must unequivocally say that she will introduce legislation to eliminate the tax on SSI benefits. The Democrats have already introduced bills in Congress to do that and much more.
U.S. Representative Angie Craig has a bill, You Earned It, You Keep It Act, which would eliminate all federal taxes on Social Security benefits beginning next year. The bill would be paid for by raising the Social Security payroll tax cap for higher-earning Americans, so more Americans would continue paying into Social Security.
According to an analysis of the Office of Chief Actuary of Social Security Rep. Craig’s bill, it would allow the Social Security Administration to continue making all payments on time and in full through 2054 – 20 years longer than the current projection of 2034.
It would also reduce the federal debt by $8.9 trillion over 75 years.
Last year, Democratic Representative John Larson introduced H.R.4583 - Social Security 2100 Act. Among a dozen improvements to SSI, it increases benefits by 2% across the board for all Social Security beneficiaries for the first time in 52 years.
And, unlike Trump’s pithy SSI plan, it extends the solvency of the Social Security Trust Fund. It does so by FICA being applied to earnings above $400,000, with those extra earnings counted toward benefits at a reduced rate.
Neither Biden nor Harris has publicly endorsed Craig or Larson’s bills, but their legislation reflects their own statements on improving SSI. Harris must identify them as stepping stones to working with Congress to initiate a bipartisan discussion to pass legislation in her first year as president. The legislation would cut SSI taxes, increase SSI benefits, and ensure that SSI does not collapse due to insolvency.
Seniors on SSI or older Americans approaching retirement need to receive this clear and strong message from Harris for her to be our next president.
Nick Licata is the author of Becoming A Citizen Activist and Student Power, Democracy and Revolution in the Sixties. He is the founding board chair of Local Progress, a national network of over 1,300 progressive municipal officials.
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